More Scottish small businesses forecasting growth, research reveals
According to new research from Novuna Business Finance, there has been a rise in the percentage of Scottish small businesses forecasting growth in the next three months. A quarter (25 per cent) of Scottish small businesses anticipate growth, up from 15 per cent this time last year.
However, the research also revealed that many Scottish small businesses are worried about what could be announced in the UK Budget later this month. Almost half (48 per cent) said that further hikes to national insurance would negatively impact the growth outlook and finances of their business. More than a third (35 per cent) were concerned about the impact of potential rises in corporation tax.
The percentage of Scottish small businesses predicting growth for the final three months of 2026 was found to be similar to those in Wales (26 per cent), but slightly lower than in some regions of England, including London (32 per cent), the West Midlands (31 per cent), the north west (29 per cent) and east Midlands (29 per cent).
The Business Barometer study from Novuna Business Finance has tracked UK small- business growth forecasts every quarter since 2014.
Jo Morris, head of insight at Novuna Business Finance commented: “From our latest data, it is good to see an improvement in small-business growth forecasts in Scotland.
“While the end-of-year rally is modest, the overall position remains some way behind the growth forecasts seen in 2024 and early 2025.
“Our quarterly research this year shows that many small businesses are working hard to
absorb the pressures of rising fuel and energy costs. Many are also concerned about how further tax, inflation and interest-rate changes could impact their growth plans. At the same time, the majority of smaller businesses have not yet fully worked through whether and how AI could practically help business growth.
“Despite all the headwinds, what we have seen since the Covid era and the cost-of-living crisis is that small-business owners are resilient. They dislike uncertainty, but they find ways to adapt, innovate and pursue growth.
“Looking ahead to 2027, the UK’s growth ambitions depend heavily on their success. The autumn and winter months are an important time to step up and back UK small businesses.”
Novuna Business Finance, part of Mitsubishi HC Capital Inc, provides funding solutions to smes and large businesses across the UK, including asset finance, stocking finance, block discounting and sustainable project finance. Its asset portfolio stands at more than £1.9bn.
The firm supports sectors such as transport, agriculture, construction and manufacturing.
Pictured: Jo Morris, head of insight at Novuna Business Finance
Comments